Kuyambira kumapeto kwa Januwale mpaka pakati pa February, ma ICE cotton futures anayamba kukwera mofulumira, ndipo mgwirizano waukulu unakwera kuchoka pa masenti pafupifupi 82 kufika pa masenti opitilira 96. Munthawi imeneyi, panalibe zinthu zabwino zapadera pamsika wa thonje, koma mfundo zazikulu ndi mbali yayikulu zinali nkhani zosamveka bwino. Pansi pa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa masheya ndi zinthu zaku US, komanso kuchepa kwakukulu kwa chiyembekezo cha kuchepetsedwa kwa chiwongola dzanja ku US, ma ICE futures atuluka kuchokera ku mafunde a "lone Wolf" akukwera mitengo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti omwe akugulitsa msika azimva ngati odabwitsa.
Akatswiri a zamtsogolo aku US adati msika wa thonje waposachedwa ulibe zinthu zodziwikiratu zodziwika bwino, pomwe ndalama zikupitilira kukweza mtengo, kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi malo otseguka zimatulutsidwa tsiku lililonse, magwiridwe antchito osazolowereka awa ndi ovuta kufotokoza, mwina ndalama zomwe zaphunzira msika sizikumvetsa momwe zinthu zilili. Mpaka pa February 18, National Cotton Council of the United States (NCC) idatulutsa cholinga chake chobzala thonje. Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa NCC, cholinga cha thonje ku US mu 2024 ndi maekala 9.8 miliyoni, kuchepa kwa 3.7% kuchokera chaka chatha, zomwe ndizosiyana kwambiri ndi zomwe zidanenedweratu kale za Cotton Farmers Magazine ndi USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Kale, akatswiri akunja nthawi zambiri amakhulupirira kuti mtengo wa thonje udakwera mofulumira kwambiri, kuchokera pa graph yaukadaulo wakhala pafupi ndi malo apamwamba kwambiri pamsika, ndipo akuyembekezeka kukhala ndi kukana kwakukulu mu 95-96 US. Pa February 20, chifukwa cha zinthu zabwino zosayembekezereka zomwe NCC United States idachita kuti malo omwe akufuna ku America agwe, tsogolo la ICE linatsika kwambiri pambuyo potsegulidwa kwa February 20, ndipo masana a February 20, linatsika ndi mapointi opitilira 200, otsika kwambiri anatsika kufika pa masenti 92.
Malinga ndi bungwe la USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, kupanga ndi kufunikira kwa dziko lonse kudzawirikiza kawiri mu 2024/25, ndipo kuneneratu kwa kufunikira kwa thonje kuli ndi chiyembekezo chachikulu. Chifukwa cha kusintha kwa chuma cha dziko lonse, kugayidwa kwa zinthu zamafakitale komanso kuwonjezeka kwa kupezeka kwa thonje, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa thonje kukuyembekezeka kutsika ndikukweranso, ndipo mitengo ya thonje ikuyembekezeka kukwera pang'ono. Komabe, ngakhale kuti NCC ikuyembekeza kuti dera la thonje ku United States litsike, mitengo ya thonje yakwera kwambiri pambuyo poti kafukufukuyu watulutsidwa, ndipo mwayi woti malo obzala mbewu achuluke mtsogolomu ndi waukulu. Nthawi yomweyo, chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo m'dera lopangira thonje ku United States, mwayi woti chiwerengero cha thonje ku United States chaka chino chisiye kugwira ntchito udzakhala wotsika kwambiri kuposa zaka ziwiri zapitazi, kotero mwayi woti thonje liwonjezeke kwambiri ku United States ndi waukulu kwambiri. Malinga ndi kuneneratu kwa USDA Outlook Forum komwe kukuchitika panopa, kupanga thonje ku US chaka chamawa kukuyembekezeka kukhala mabale 16 miliyoni, okwera kwambiri kuposa mabale 12.4 miliyoni chaka chino. Malinga ndi lipoti la NCC, kuchuluka kwa thonje ku US kukuyembekezeka kukhala mabale 14.6 miliyoni, komwenso ndi kwakukulu kwambiri kuposa chaka chino.
Pankhani ya kupezeka kwa thonje, makamaka kukwera kwa kuchuluka kwa thonje ku United States, momwe kufunikira kwa thonje kungabwererere ndikofunikira kwambiri pakukula kwa mitengo ya thonje. Ngakhale chilengedwe chonse chitakhala bwino, zimatenga nthawi yayitali kuti kufunikira kubwererere. Kuchokera pa zomwe zachitika posachedwa, ngakhale kuti kugayidwa kwa zinthu zomwe zili m'sitolo kwatha, kubwezeretsanso kwa unyolo wamafakitale kwayamba kuwoneka, koma pakadali pano sikungathe kuthandizira mtengo wokwera wa thonje. Malinga ndi ndemanga za msika wakunja, msika wapadziko lonse wa thonje pa Chikondwerero cha Masika ndi wopepuka kwambiri, kuchuluka kwa mafunso a fakitale ndi kotsika kwambiri kuposa mtengo wa thonje, ndipo mtengo wa ulusi wapadziko lonse lapansi sunagwirizane ndi liwiro la mitengo ya thonje, ngati phindu la mafakitale m'masabata angapo otsatira silingatsimikizidwe, mtengo wokwera wa thonje udzakhala wovuta kuusunga.
Chitsime: China Cotton Network
Nthawi yotumizira: Feb-21-2024