Malinga ndi zomwe zanenedwa posachedwapa ndi National Cotton Association of the United States (NCC), malo obzala thonje lalitali ku United States mu 2024 ndi pafupifupi maekala 202,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 37.7%, pogwiritsa ntchito kuchuluka kwapakati kwa thonje lalitali kwa zaka pafupifupi khumi, kuchuluka konse kwa thonje lalitali ku United States mu 2024/25 kukuyembekezeka kufika pa paketi 538,000 (matani 117,300).
Kupanga thonje kwa nthawi yayitali ku Egypt kunatsika kufika pa matani 85,000 mu nyengo yokolola ya 2023, poyerekeza ndi matani 125,000 chaka chatha, zomwe zinachepetsa ndi 32% pachaka. Mu 2024, pamene malonda a thonje ku Egypt akupitilizabe kukhala amphamvu, ndalama zomwe alimi amapeza zinali zokwera kwambiri kuposa mitengo ya chakudya ndi mafuta, komanso chaka cha ndalama cha 2023/2024 chomwe boma la Egypt linakonza kuti ulimi ndi ulimi wothirira ukhale ndi ndalama zokwana 71% chaka ndi chaka, malo obzala thonje ku Egypt akuyembekezeka kukwera kwambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, malo obzala thonje ku China ndi India, mayiko awiri akuluakulu omwe amapanga thonje kwa nthawi yayitali, akuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kutentha mu 2024, ndipo pali mwayi waukulu woti malo ndi malo onse azikolola kawiri.
Malinga ndi kusanthula kwa mafakitale, dera lobzala thonje padziko lonse lapansi mu 2024 lakwera kwambiri kapena pazifukwa zotsatirazi:
Choyamba, kuyerekeza mitengo pakati pa thonje lalitali ndi thonje laling'ono ndi koonekeratu, ndipo chidwi cha alimi pakusamalira ndi kukulitsa kubzala thonje lalitali ndi chachikulu. Monga ndondomeko yotumizira yaposachedwa ya Qingdao Port February/March ya United States Pima cotton 2-2 46/48 (yolimba 38/40GPT, thonje latsopano la 2023/24) yolembedwa pa 220-225 cents/paundi, pomwe ndondomeko yotumizira yomweyi 31-336/37 (yolimba 28/29GPT) yolembedwa pa 101-102.5 cents/paundi, Kusiyana pakati pa ziwirizi ndi pafupifupi 120 cents pa paundi. Kuyambira 2023/24, si mtengo wogulira thonje lalitali la Xinjiang wokha womwe ndi wokwera kwambiri kuposa wa thonje laling'ono, komanso mtengo wa thonje lalitali wasiya thonje laling'ono kwambiri, ndipo ndalama zomwe alimi amabzala thonje lalitali ndi zapamwamba kwambiri kuposa za thonje laling'ono.
Chachiwiri, thonje ndi labwino komanso lodziwika bwino kuposa chimanga, tirigu, soya ndi mbewu zina. Malinga ndi ziwerengero, mtengo wa thonje latsopano (pangano la Disembala 2024) ndi wotsika ndi masenti 3.5 (4%) kuposa nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha (pangano la Disembala 2023), koma mtengo wa chimanga munthawi yomweyi mu 2024 watsika pafupifupi 20% ndipo soya watsika ndi 13%. Kuphatikiza apo, kuchuluka kwa thonje la ICE kunakwera kwambiri panthawi ya Chikondwerero cha Masika, pomwe chimanga ndi tirigu zinali zikutsika mosalekeza, ndipo zotsatira za mtengo wa thonje zinali kukwera kwambiri. Zachidziwikire, thonje lalitali ndi lodziwika bwino kwa alimi kuposa thonje labwino komanso mbewu zina.
Chachitatu, posachedwapa, dera la kumadzulo kwa thonje la ku United States lomwe limapanga thonje la Pima likulandira mvula, chinyezi cha nthaka chakwera kwambiri, kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe asiya ntchito kudzachepa kwambiri kuposa zaka ziwiri zapitazi, ndipo kukula kwa mbewu zobzalidwa nthawi yayitali komanso zokolola zikuyembekezeka kukhala zolimba. Zoneneratu zaposachedwa za United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration zikuwonetsa kuti chilala chakumwera chakumadzulo kwa United States chaka chino chidzakwera kwambiri, ndipo njira yabwino idzapitirira mpaka Meyi, chidwi chobzala thonje + nyengo chidzathandiza, dera la kumwera chakumadzulo kwa thonje ndi dera la kumadzulo kwa thonje sichidzangochepetsa kwambiri kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe asiya ntchito, komanso chidzawonjezera malo omwe angathe kukolola mu 2024, ndipo magwiridwe antchito a thonje lalitali adzakhala ochulukirapo.
Chitsime: China Cotton Information Center
Nthawi yotumizira: Feb-20-2024