Monga chinthu chopangira polyester, kusinthasintha kwa mitengo ya mafuta osakonzedwa kumatsimikiza mwachindunji mtengo wa polyester. M'zaka zitatu zapitazi, mikangano yandale yakhala chimodzi mwazinthu zofunika kwambiri zomwe zimakhudza mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse lapansi. Posachedwapa, momwe nkhondo ya Russia ndi Ukraine yakhalira yasintha kwambiri, ndipo mafuta osakonzedwa aku Russia akuyembekezeka kubwerera pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zakhudza kwambiri mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse lapansi!
Mafuta atsike kufika pa $60?
Malinga ndi malipoti am'mbuyomu a CCTV, pa February 12, nthawi ya kum'mawa kwa US, Purezidenti wa US Trump adalankhula pafoni ndi Purezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin ndi Purezidenti wa Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Magulu awiriwa adagwirizana kuti "agwirizane kwambiri" kuti athetse mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine ndikutumiza magulu awo kuti "ayambe kukambirana nthawi yomweyo."
Citi inanena mu lipoti la pa 13 February kuti boma la Trump likugwira ntchito yokonza dongosolo la mtendere kuti lithetse mkangano wa Russia ndi Ukraine. Dongosololi likhoza kuphatikizapo kukakamiza Russia ndi Ukraine kuti afikire mgwirizano wothetsa nkhondo pofika pa 20 Epulo, 2025. Ngati litapambana, dongosololi likhoza kuchititsa kuti zilango zina zichotsedwe ku Russia, kusintha momwe msika wamafuta padziko lonse lapansi umagwirira ntchito komanso momwe mafuta amafunidwira.
Kuyenda kwa mafuta aku Russia kwasintha kwambiri kuyambira pomwe nkhondoyi idayamba. Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Citi, mafuta aku Russia awonjezera matani pafupifupi 70 biliyoni a matani. Nthawi yomweyo, mayiko ena monga India adawonjezera kufunikira kwawo kwa mafuta aku Russia kwambiri, kuwonjezeka ndi migolo 800,000 patsiku ndi migolo 2 miliyoni patsiku, motsatana.
Ngati mayiko akumadzulo achepetsa ziletso zomwe adapereka ku Russia ndikudzipereka kuti akhazikitse ubale wamalonda, kupanga mafuta ndi kutumiza kunja kwa Russia kungakwere kwambiri. Izi zisintha kwambiri momwe mafuta amaperekedwera padziko lonse lapansi.
Kumbali yopereka mafuta, zilango zomwe dziko la United States lapereka pakali pano zasiya migolo yamafuta pafupifupi 30 miliyoni aku Russia atasowa panyanja.
Citi ikukhulupirira kuti ngati dongosolo la mtendere lipita patsogolo, mafuta osowawa komanso kuchuluka kwa mafuta omwe atsalira chifukwa cha kusintha kwa njira zamalonda (pafupifupi migolo 150-200 miliyoni) zitha kutulutsidwa pamsika, zomwe zikuwonjezera kupanikizika kwa magetsi.
Zotsatira zake, mitengo ya mafuta a Brent idzakhala pakati pa $60 ndi $65 pa mbiya mu theka lachiwiri la 2025.
Ndondomeko za Trump zikuchepetsa mitengo ya mafuta
Kuwonjezera pa nkhani ya ku Russia, Trump nayenso ndi m'modzi mwa omwe akuchepetsa mitengo ya mafuta.
Kafukufuku wa mabanki 26 wochitidwa ndi Haynes Boone LLC kumapeto kwa chaka chatha adawonetsa kuti amayembekezera kuti mitengo ya WTI itsike kufika pa $58.62 pa mbiya mu 2027, pafupifupi $10 pa mbiya pansi pa mulingo womwe ulipo pano, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti mabanki akukonzekera kuti mitengo itsike pansi pa $60 pakati pa nthawi yatsopano ya Trump. Trump adachita kampeni polonjeza kuti adzakakamiza opanga mafuta a shale kuti awonjezere kupanga, koma sizikudziwika ngati akufuna kukwaniritsa lonjezolo popeza opanga mafuta aku US ndi makampani odziyimira pawokha omwe amasankha kuchuluka kwa kupanga makamaka potengera zachuma.
Trump akufuna kulamulira kukwera kwa mitengo ya mafuta mdziko la US pochepetsa mitengo ya mafuta, Citi ikuyerekeza kuti ngati mitengo ya mafuta osaphika a Brent itsika kufika pa $60 pa barrel mu kotala lachinayi la 2025 (mitengo ya mafuta osaphika a WTI ndi $57 pa barrel), ndipo ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa ku zinthu zamafuta zikukhalabe pamlingo womwe ulipo, mtengo wa mafuta ogwiritsidwa ntchito ku zinthu zamafuta aku US udzatsika ndi pafupifupi $85 biliyoni chaka chilichonse. Izi ndi pafupifupi 0.3 peresenti ya GDP ya US.
Kodi msika wa nsalu uli ndi zotsatira zotani?
Nthawi yomaliza yomwe New York crude oil futures (WTI) idatsika pansi pa $60 inali pa Marichi 29, 2021, pomwe mtengo wa New York crude oil futures udatsika kufika pa $59.60 pa mbiya. Pakadali pano, Brent crude futures idagulitsidwa pa $63.14 pa mbiya patsikulo. Panthawiyo, polyester POY inali pafupifupi 7510 yuan/tani, yokwera kwambiri kuposa 7350 yuan/tani yomwe ilipo pano.
Komabe, panthawiyo, mu unyolo wa mafakitale a polyester, PX inali yayikulu kwambiri, mtengo wake unapitirira kukhala wamphamvu, ndipo unatenga phindu lalikulu la unyolo wa mafakitale, ndipo momwe zinthu zilili pano zasintha kwambiri.
Pokhapokha poganizira kusiyana kumeneku, pa 14 February, pangano la New York crude oil futures 03 linatha pa 70.74 yuan/ton, ngati likufuna kutsika kufika pa 60 dollars, pali kusiyana kwa pafupifupi 10 dollars.
Pambuyo pa kuyamba kwa masika ano, ngakhale kuti mtengo wa ulusi wa polyester wakwera kwambiri, chidwi cha makampani oluka zinthu zogula chidali chofala, sichinagwiritsidwe ntchito, ndipo malingaliro odikira ndikuwona akupitilirabe, ndipo zinthu zomwe polyester imagwiritsa ntchito zikuchulukirachulukira.
Ngati mafuta osakonzedwa alowa pansi, zidzakulitsa kwambiri ziyembekezo za msika pa zinthu zopangira, ndipo zinthu zomwe zili mu polyester zidzapitirira kusonkhana. Komabe, nyengo ya nsalu mu Marichi ikubwera, chiwerengero cha maoda chawonjezeka, ndipo pali kufunikira kwakukulu kwa zinthu zopangira, zomwe zingathandize kuchepetsa mphamvu ya mafuta osakonzedwa pang'ono pamlingo winawake.
Nthawi yotumizira: Feb-25-2025