Kusintha kwa Malonda | Kuwerengera Kukwera kwa Misonkho! Kodi Mtengo wa Ulusi Waku China Wotumizidwa Ku US Udzakwera ndi 100% Kuyambira pa 1 Novembala?

Pa Okutobala 10 (nthawi yakomweko), Purezidenti wa US Trump adalengeza mfundo yayikulu: kuyambira pa Novembala 1, msonkho wowonjezera wa 100% udzaperekedwa pa katundu yense wochokera ku China kuwonjezera pa mitengo yomwe ilipo, ndipo zinthu zopangidwa ndi nsalu monga ulusi zikuphatikizidwa popanda kupatulapo. Kuphatikiza ndi mitengo yomwe ilipo ya Gawo 301, msonkho wonse wazinthu zina zopangidwa ndi ulusi wapitirira 50%, zomwe zikuwirikiza kawiri mtengo wamakampani otumiza kunja ku US.

Malinga ndi kuwerengera kwa mafakitale, ngati maoda aku US ataya kwambiri, izi zidzakhudza 2.5% ya ndalama zonse zomwe makampani aku China amapeza mu ulusi wapakhomo, ndipo kupanga zinthu zazing'ono ndi zapakati kungakumane ndi chiopsezo choyimitsidwa.

Ndondomekoyi yayambitsanso makambirano amphamvu pakati pa ogwiritsa ntchito intaneti. Anthu ambiri ananena mosapita m'mbali kuti "US imabweretsa mavuto osiyanasiyana ku China koma singathe kulekerera njira zotsutsana ndi ena." Kwa ogulitsa ochokera kumayiko ena, kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwa mitengo kwakhala chizolowezi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kufunika kokulitsa misika yosiyanasiyana ndikupewa zoopsa zomwezo.

Kodi Trump ndi woona mtima nthawi ino?

Lipoti la The New York Times pa 10 linanena kuti chiwongola dzanja cha US pa katundu waku China chafika pa 30%, ndipo pazinthu zina, chakwera kwambiri. Chisankho cha Trump chidzakweza chiwongola dzanja cha katundu waku China kufika pa 130%, zomwe zikuwonetsa kukwera kwakukulu kwa mikangano pakati pa mayiko awiri akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi. Kumayambiriro kwa chaka chino, pambuyo poti kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja kwachitika kangapo ndi mbali ya US, chiwongola dzanja chomwe chinayikidwa ku China chinafika pa 145%, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti malonda ambiri pakati pa mayiko awiriwa ayime. Pambuyo pake, China ndi US zinafika pa mgwirizano wa chiwongola dzanja kuti zilimbikitse zokambirana zamalonda, pang'onopang'ono kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja kufika pa 30%. Kukhazikitsanso chiwopsezo cha chiwopsezo cha chiwopsezo cha chiwopsezo nthawi ino kudzawononga zomwe zapezeka chifukwa cha zokambirana zambiri zachuma ndi zamalonda pakati pa China ndi US.

Anthu akunja aona kuti zotsatirapo zoipa za kutsekedwa kwa boma la US zikupitirirabe kuonekera, ndipo Trump, yemwe watopa kale, posachedwapa walephera pakuyesera kwake kupeza Mphoto ya Mtendere ya Nobel. Akatswiri ena a nkhani ku US adati pakati pa mavuto amkati ndi akunja komanso kusakhutira kwakukulu, njira ya Trump yolankhulira mkwiyo wake pa malamulo atsopano a China ikhozanso kukhala kuyesa kusokoneza chidwi cha anthu am'deralo.

Komabe, kuopseza mwadzidzidzi kuti chiwopsezo chokweza chiwongola dzanja cha China ndi 100% kwapangitsa kuti maganizo a anthu aku US apeze kuti ndi "kosadalirika." Kaya chiwerengerochi chomwe chikuoneka ngati chopenga chidzagwiritsidwa ntchito kapena ndi njira ina yokambirana ya Trump yakhala nkhani yaikulu pakati pa magulu onse.

Kuyambira tsiku lisanafike mpaka tsiku limene Trump adalengeza kukwera kwa mitengo, China idakhazikitsa njira ziwiri zolimbana kuti iyankhule molondola ndi kukakamizidwa kwa malonda ku US.

Pa Okutobala 9, Unduna wa Zamalonda ku China udapereka chidziwitso, chomwe sichinangowonjezera mphamvu yolamulira kutumiza kunja kwa zinthu zoyambira za nthaka yosowa komanso chinaphatikizapo migodi ya nthaka yosowa ndi ukadaulo woyenga ndi zida zazikulu pazifukwa zoletsa kutumiza kunja koyamba. Popeza nthaka yosowa ndi zinthu zofunika kwambiri pakupanga zinthu mwanzeru komanso mphamvu zatsopano, muyeso uwu udzakhudza mwachindunji kukhazikika kwa mafakitale ndi maunyolo ofunikira ku US.

Pa Okutobala 10, Unduna wa Zoyendera ku China unalengeza nthawi yomweyo kuti kuyambira pa Okutobala 14, ndalama zina zolipirira sitima zapamadzi zomwe zili ndi mbendera ya US zomwe zikulowa m'madoko aku China zidzalipidwa, ndipo muyezo wolipiritsa udzakhala wofanana kwathunthu ndi ndalama zomwe US ​​idayika kale pa sitima zaku China. Deta ikuwonetsa kuti malonda apanyanja pakati pa China ndi US amaposa 70% ya kuchuluka kwa malonda pakati pa mayiko awiriwa. Muyeso uwu udzawonjezera mwachindunji ndalama zamakampani otumiza katundu aku US, zomwe zidzawakakamiza kuti ayang'anenso mtengo wamalonda ndi China, komanso kuthandiza makampani otumiza katundu kunja kuti apeze mphamvu zambiri zogulira.

Poyang'anizana ndi zopinga za misonkho pamsika wa ku US, misika yatsopano monga South America ndi Africa ikukhala "malo otetezeka" kwa mabizinesi a ulusi. Deta ikuwonetsa kuti kufunikira kwa mafakitale oluka aku Brazil a ulusi wopota wa vortex-spun ndi air-jet ku China kwawonjezeka ndi 12% pachaka, ndipo kudalira kwa makampani opanga nsalu zakunyumba aku Argentina pa ulusi waku China kumaposa 60%. Shandong Weiqiao yatenga nawo mbali mwachangu mu Chiwonetsero cha Brazilian GTS Textile Exhibition ndipo yafika pa oda yofunikira ya madola 2 miliyoni aku US patsiku loyamba. "Makasitomala aku South America amaona kuti kugwiritsa ntchito bwino ndalama ndi kotsika kwambiri, ndipo mtengo wa ulusi wathu pa tani ndi wotsika ndi 8% kuposa wa zinthu zofanana kuchokera ku India, zomwe ndi phindu lathu lalikulu."

Misika yomwe ili m'mphepete mwa "Belt and Road" komanso pakati pa mayiko omwe ali mamembala a RCEP ilinso ndi kuthekera kwakukulu. Mu theka loyamba la chaka cha 2025, kutumiza ulusi ku China ku Southeast Asia kwawonjezeka ndi 9.3%. Pansi pa dongosolo la RCEP, 82% ya magulu a ulusi amatha kusangalala ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa misonkho kapena kuchotsedwa. Mabizinesi akapempha satifiketi yoyambira, msonkho wolowera ku Cambodia ukhoza kuchepetsedwa pang'onopang'ono kuchoka pa 15% kufika pa zero, zomwe zimawonjezera kwambiri mpikisano pamsika.

2. Kupambana kwa Zamalonda: Ulusi Wowonjezera Mtengo Wapamwamba Umalimbana ndi Zoopsa

Mu malo ochitira zinthu, mizere yopangira ulusi woletsa mabakiteriya komanso wozizira komanso ulusi woyendetsa kutentha wa graphene umagwira ntchito mokwanira. Mtundu uwu wa ulusi wogwira ntchito uli ndi zopinga zambiri zaukadaulo, ndipo ngakhale mtengo utasinthidwa chifukwa cha mitengo, makasitomala aku US akhoza kuvomereza kukwera kwa mitengo mpaka 30%. M'tsogolomu, ndalama zowonjezera za kafukufuku ndi chitukuko muzinthu za ulusi wa zovala zakunja ndi nsalu zachipatala zidzakhala "linga" la mabizinesi kuti apewe zoopsa zamitengo.

Zochitika m'makampani zimatsimikiziranso izi. Mu 2025, kufunikira kwa ulusi wosamalira chilengedwe padziko lonse lapansi kudzawonjezeka ndi 15%, ndipo malo apamwamba a ulusi wanzeru ndi ulusi wobwezerezedwanso ndi okwera nthawi 2-3 kuposa azinthu wamba. Akuyembekezeka kuti msika wa ulusi wapamwamba udzafika 35% pofika chaka cha 2030, ndipo kukweza ukadaulo kwakhala chinsinsi cha mabizinesi kuthana ndi mavuto.

Makampani ena amasankha kudutsa ku Southeast Asia kuti achepetse ndalama zolipirira msonkho, koma zoopsa zotsata malamulo sizinganyalanyazidwe. Kampani ya ulusi ku Zhejiang idadziwika kale ndi US Customs kuti "imachokera ku China" chifukwa inkangodula ndi kusoka ku Cambodia popanda kusamutsa njira yopangira, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mitengo ikwere ndi 27.5 peresenti. Pambuyo pokonza, kampaniyo idasamutsa njira yolukira ulusi kudera lakwawo, ndipo ndi satifiketi yochokera ku Cambodia yovomerezeka, msonkho unachepetsedwa kufika pa 25.6%.

“Ukadaulo wa Blockchain ukuthetsa vuto la kutsata njira zoperekera zinthu,” akatswiri amakampaniwo adatero. Mwa kuyika zinthu pa unyolo kuti ziwonetse njira yonse yopangira nthawi yeniyeni, chiopsezo cha chinyengo cha chiyambi chingapewedwe bwino. Pakadali pano, makampani 6 otsogola a ulusi ku Fujian apeza kasamalidwe ka unyolo woperekera zinthu m'njira yowoneka bwino.

Ngakhale msika wa ku US ukukumana ndi zodabwitsa, kuthekera konse kwa msika wa ulusi padziko lonse lapansi kukadalipo. Kukula kwa msika wa ulusi padziko lonse lapansi kudzafika $43 biliyoni mu 2025, ndipo momwe Asia imakhalira ndi zoposa 60% sikunasinthe. Bungwe la China National Textile and Apparel Council limalimbikitsa kuti mabizinesi azigwiritsa ntchito njira ziwiri: mdziko muno, kufufuza zochitika zogawika monga zovala zamasewera ndi nsalu zachipatala kuti akwaniritse zosowa za ogula m'nyumba; padziko lonse lapansi, kugwiritsa ntchito njira zamalonda zapaintaneti kuti apange mitundu ya DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) ndikufikira makasitomala akunja mwachindunji.

“Mitengo yokakamiza kukweza mafakitale singakhale chinthu choipa,” anatero akatswiri ochokera ku General Administration of Customs. M'magawo atatu oyambirira a 2025, chiwerengero cha ma patent omwe amafunsira ulusi wanzeru m'dziko muno chinawonjezeka ndi 47% chaka ndi chaka. “Kutha kwa ulusi wa ku China wothandizira ulusi wa mafakitale ndi phindu lalikulu lomwe Southeast Asia silingasinthe. Bola ngati njira yoyenera yapezeka, mwayi watsopano ungagwiritsidwe ntchito pakusintha kwa zinthu.”